Western intelligence agencies have evidence that Russia is discussing an attack on NATO, says EU Defense Commissioner
Import
EU Defense Commissioner Kubilius says Ukraine’s start-up-based defense industry offers NATO members crucial lessons in drone warfare and rapid innovation.
Europe at risk: Kremlin ‘discussing’ invasion of NATO countries, intelligence reveals ‘Russia and China preparing to attack NATO in 2027’ ???
Western intelligence agencies have reportedly gathered evidence that Russia is discussing the possibility of a direct attack on NATO member states, according to EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, as cited by Gazeta Wyborcza. Kubilius said that these signals should be treated with the utmost seriousness, stressing that the West cannot underestimate Moscow’s intentions amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The commissioner referred to assessments by Western intelligence agencies that show that the Kremlin is actively exploring scenarios for possible attacks against the Alliance. Similar warnings had previously been issued by German intelligence agencies, which also confirmed that such discussions are taking place within Russian military and political circles. Kubilius pointed out that this information should serve as a wake-up call for Europe, adding that defense preparedness must now become a top priority.
The EU official recalled previous statements made in 2025 by General Alexus Grinkiewicz, commander of US Army Europe and NATO Allied Forces. Grinkiewicz had warned that the United States and its European allies may only have about a year and a half to prepare for the possibility of a global conflict involving both Russia and China. He warned that these two authoritarian powers could coordinate military action by 2027, presenting an unprecedented challenge to the security of the West.
Kubilius noted that despite its huge human and material losses, Russia has continued to adapt and expand its weapons production. “Putin expected to be in Kiev within three days of the invasion,” he said. “Instead, the war evolved and Russia adapted to technological changes while maintaining large-scale weapons production.”
The lesson from Ukraine
The commissioner described Ukraine as a “laboratory of modern defense,” stressing that Western allies should learn not only from Ukraine’s resilience but also from its innovation and adaptability. He said Kiev was ready to share its battlefield experience and technological expertise with European partners to help them prepare for potential Russian aggression. However, he warned that simply buying interceptor drones or importing weapons systems was not enough.
In recent months, Russia has stepped up drone incursions into European airspace, with Poland, Denmark, Norway, Romania and the Baltic states reporting incidents of unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over their territories. Many of these countries, Kubilius said, still lack the means to effectively counter such attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already offered assistance, and both Poland and Denmark have announced plans to incorporate Ukrainian anti-drone technology into their defense systems.
Kubilius praised Ukraine’s ability to innovate under pressure, noting its thriving defense start-ups and flexible production methods. “Ukrainians have learned to operate without rigid bureaucracy,” he said. “Drone manufacturers operate like independent battalions — producing, testing and improving their own systems directly on the battlefield.”
At the same time, reports from Kiev’s military intelligence services suggest that Russia is preparing for a massive rearmament effort. In September 2025, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence service, Kirill Budanov, revealed that Moscow had approved a comprehensive plan for the reconstruction and modernization of its armed forces, aimed at achieving full operational readiness for a large-scale confrontation with Europe.
The rearmament strategy is to be developed in two stages - the first will last until 2030 and the second until 2037. According to Budanov, the initial phase alone represents the largest weapons modernization program since the 1980s, with a projected cost of about $1.2 trillion. He warned that this effort, if completed, would significantly enhance Russia's ability to wage war beyond Ukraine's borders.
What does Germany say?
Russia could attack NATO within four years, German defense minister warns NATO members must prepare for a possible attack by Russia within the next four years, the head of Germany's armed forces has said.
General Carsten Breuer told the BBC that Russia was producing hundreds of tanks a year, many of which could be used to attack NATO members in the Baltics by 2029 or earlier. He
also insisted that NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, remained united on the war in Ukraine, despite recent differences of opinion expressed by both Hungary and Slovakia.
General Breuer was speaking on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, a defense summit in Singapore organized by the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.
China's Involvement
NATO and the EU have "discovered" that Russia and China are planning an attack on NATO, according to information supposedly in the possession of Western intelligence services, and this was "revealed" by the European Union's Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andrzej Kubilius, as reported by the Polish newspaper "Wyborcza".
The Kremlin is reportedly discussing a possible invasion of NATO countries. Western intelligence agencies have evidence that Russia is considering an attack on the Alliance, says European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, Wyborcza reports.
What does the US say?
In 2025, the Supreme Commander of the US Army in Europe and NATO Allied Forces, General Alexus Grinkievich, warned that the US and its European allies probably have only a year and a half to prepare for a possible global military conflict with China and Russia. He added that the two dictatorships could launch a coordinated attack in 2027.
He explains that Russia is paying a terrible price for its gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin was supposedly in Kiev three days after the invasion, Kubilius continues. But the war has changed.
“Russia has adapted to technological transformations and, despite its losses, continues to produce weapons on a mass scale,” Kubilius believes.
Ukraine—a laboratory of modern defense
The European Commissioner adds that Ukraine is ready to help Western allies prepare for a possible Russian invasion. However, he warns that simply buying interceptor drones and learning how to operate them is not enough.
In 2025, Russia intensified drone attacks against EU countries, including Poland. Denmark, Norway, Romania and the Baltic states have also recorded drones in their skies. Not all of these states are able to effectively intercept unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Poland and Denmark have already announced plans to adopt Ukrainian expertise in countering unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
“We need to learn flexibility from the Ukrainians. Look at their defense industry. It is currently based on start-ups, but they do not just produce equipment. They monitor its use on the battlefield and constantly improve it,” says Kubilius.
Companies producing drones in Ukraine essentially operate their own drone battalions.
“It is impressive how the Ukrainians got rid of bureaucratic structures in the face of a Russian attack,” adds the European Commissioner.
Russia's military rearmament program
In September 2025, Kirill Budanov, head of the Defense Services of Ukraine, revealed that the Russian leadership is preparing a complete rearmament of its army, which would allow it to enter into a direct military conflict with European countries, Apostrophe reports . The plan is to implement this in two stages: by 2030 and then by 2037.
The first stage, which will be accelerated to 2030, is the largest program since the 1980s, surpassing even the scale of the late Soviet period, with an estimated budget of about $1.2 trillion.
You are performing an Analysis on the Russia-China relationship.
Of course, a NATO-Russia conflict automatically puts China in the war, and God forbid, because some seem to have very dangerous plans.
China will have no other choice because they know in Beijing that if the Russians are defeated, then their turn will come.
Now some within NATO want to make it be believed that Russia, which has acquired great "wounds" from the war in Ukraine, will have the disposition and the will to experience a world war.
In August 2025, the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO (SACEUR), General Alexis Grinkevich, warned that the United States and European allies may have only a year and a half to prepare for a potential global military conflict with China and Russia.
Beijing and Moscow may reportedly coordinate an attack by 2027!
The European Commissioner for Defense and Space stressed the importance of the West’s preparation, not only based on the experience of Ukraine, but also through analysis of Russian tactics. Kubilius also noted that Ukraine's defense expertise is a critical factor for the EU's security, stressing that Kiev is willing to assist Western allies in the face of a possible Russian attack.
Already, Poland and Denmark have announced plans to use Ukrainian experience in countering Russian drones. In essence, Ukrainian companies that manufacture unmanned aircraft operate as independent drone battalions. “It is remarkable how the Ukrainians managed to overcome bureaucratic obstacles under the pressure of Russian aggression,” Kubilius stressed. In contrast, Russia seems to be accelerating the initial stage of its strategy, preparing for a possible future war with NATO.
It focuses mainly on shaping the informational and psychological framework for such a conflict.
There are indications that Moscow is conducting coordinated preparatory actions as part of a broader phase, aimed at creating appropriate physical and psychological conditions for possible military crises. Analysts point out that in recent years Russia has launched a series of overt and covert attacks against NATO member states – from sabotage and electronic warfare to GPS jamming and arson. At the same time, it has proceeded with the restructuring of military units and the strengthening of bases on its western borders.
These attacks, whether overt or covert, serve political and strategic goals both abroad and within Russia. Moscow's aim is to cultivate fear in European populations and to erode NATO's cohesion.
This is what the West says and is now saying publicly in order to "prepare" societies for something very bad that is coming. The question is who or who are the ones who really want such a global catastrophe to happen? Because a Third World War means that the "door to the madhouse" will be thrown wide open.
Russia is supplying the Chinese military with equipment and training for aerial infiltration, according to a recent report - a report that analysts say is aimed at delivering a "decapitation blow" to Taiwan, which Beijing claims.
Why it matters
US officials believe Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be able to move against Taiwan by 2027. Meanwhile, China has ramped up production of assets designed for what would be the most sophisticated seaborne invasion since the Allied landings on D-Day in 1944.
While China has portrayed itself as neutral in Russia’s 43-month war against Ukraine, Washington and its allies have accused Beijing of allowing Moscow to continue its fossil fuel purchases and dual-use exports. NATO chief Mark Rutte warned in July that Russia would work with its near-ally to keep the 32-member alliance committed if Xi decides to pull the trigger. Newsweek contacted the Chinese Foreign Ministry via email seeking comment.
What you need to know
Although the areas in which Russia surpasses China in military capability are shrinking, Russia has practical experience, and the British think tank RUSI, citing correspondence and contracts obtained by the hacktivist group Black Moon, published a report on Friday detailing a 2023 deal in which Russia agreed to provide China with a range of weapons designed for infiltration operations.
These include light amphibious assault vehicles, self-propelled anti-tank guns and armored personnel carriers, along with technical documentation and equipment for repairing Russian-made platforms.
Russia has also committed to a “full training cycle” for a Chinese airborne battalion. This is all the more critical, the authors note, because while China’s rapid military buildup limits the possibilities with Moscow, the latter has much more recent combat experience. China has not been involved in a full-scale war in more than four decades.
Furthermore, a powerful air attack would broaden China's options for attack vectors, bypassing the limited, known, and heavily fortified beachheads along Taiwan's rugged coastline.
Bryce Barros, a security analyst and fellow at the think tank GLOBSEC, told Newsweek that the deal shows Beijing is considering ways to quickly carry out a "decapitation blow" to Taiwan's leadership in the capital, Taipei.
The PLA, drawing on the hard lessons Russia learned from the early invasion of Ukraine, could deploy airborne special forces to quickly seize control of critical infrastructure, such as the metropolitan area’s Taoyuan and Songshan airports, and other urban venues, including baseball stadiums and school parade grounds.
Taiwan's military is aware of this risk and has included such locations in previous exercises.
"Taiwan should continue to conduct exercises to defend its airfields and other flat, urban areas, ensuring that this Russian training does not give an advantage to PLA forces," Barros said.
Analysts say the latest developments in Sino-Russian relations reinforce long-standing suspicions that defense cooperation between the quasi-allies is deeper than Beijing suggests.
“It shows that both governments have explored specific areas where they can complement each other,” William Yang, a senior analyst at the nonprofit Crisis Group, told Newsweek.
For the Kremlin, the deal is not just a financial reward, but also an opportunity to “lock in” bilateral relations.
“This report may prompt countries around the world, especially the United States, European states, and democracies in Asia, to consider how they might propose more tangible measures to counter the deepening defense ties between China and Russia,” Yang said.
What people are saying:
RUSI analysts Oleksandr Danylyuk and Jack Watling wrote in their report: “Historically, Russia has been wary of exporting areas of its military-technical advantage to China, for fear of intellectual property theft.”
“However, Moscow increasingly sees the invasion of Taiwan—and the subsequent division of the global economic order into opposing spheres—as a means of building pressure on Beijing, making Russia a supplier of critical raw materials and military-industrial capacity.”
Chen Yongbo, deputy director-general of the Department of West Asian and African Affairs at Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry, said in a statement shared with Newsweek that the ministry “has taken note of the recent military cooperation between China and Russia. We will continue to monitor developments… preparing all necessary countermeasures to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait and regional stability, thereby demonstrating Taiwan’s responsibility as a member of the international community.”
Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said during a regular press conference on Monday: "The future of the Taiwan region lies in the reunification of China. With a strong and prosperous homeland, our compatriots in Taiwan will enjoy broader development space and feel more secure and dignified. Absolutely nothing will ever stop the reunification of China."
The Disagreements
Russia will not attack in 2027 - US preparing for worst-case scenario, says former Polish general "There is no need to scare each other, but we must remain truly vigilant and focused," said Prime Minister Donald Tusk. As an independent security expert, I recognize the value of this statement for the concern it brings for national security, but I also see the need to clarify its broader strategic context, writes General (Ret.) Dr. Jarosław Gromaśinski for Defence24.pl. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday that General Alexus Gryńkiewicz, the new commander of NATO forces in Europe, confirmed US assessments that Russia could be ready for a conventional confrontation with Europe as early as 2027.
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